COIN War

COIN – counter insurgency – is not an acronym that has just been recently invented by some sprightly young Washington pundit. We used that same acronym back in the last century. We used that acronym mostly in relationship to the Vietnam Debacle. It was not named the Vietnam Debacle at the time we were using the acronym though. The name Vietnam Debacle came into being after we had declared victory after eight or ten years of thrashing around diplomatically and militarily and had gotten out. I was never sure what year that exit had occurred because by the time it had occurred I had spent my pre-requisite year in the "war effort" (we called it the "war effort" then) and had, after another subsequent year spent in a sub basement of some building at Offutt AFB in Omaha gotten out of the Air Force. Once out of the Air Force I had stopped paying any attention to what was going on with the war effort. It was my version of post non-combat stress disorder. But apparently it (getting out) had occurred because not long after the time it must have occurred the guys that we had been fighting while we were thrashing around had come into South Vietnam and had set up a government. My disorder never allowed me to know, or care, when that had occurred but it must have occurred because I am told that there is a country called Vietnam. I guess we like to trade with them. I guess we need their rice. I never knew.

But back to COIN.

What I learned when I was in training at Lowery Air Force Base in Denver being trained to be an Intelligence Officer was that there were very few – really only one – examples of successful COIN operations on the part of Western Powers. The one example that our teachers – one of whom was an RAF Flight Lieutenant (there was an "F" in there somewhere, but I know not where) – could reference was Malaysia. The British had conducted a successful COIN operation in Malaysia. And it had only taken thirty years. In fact the key take away from the example of Malaysia was that if a country signs up for a COIN operation, that country had better be ready for a long slog, of thirty years or more.

But all of that is just background information.

I heard today that the republicans are all saying that we can't afford a trillion dollar health care reform bill. I keep hearing, but it is probably all lies, that that trillion dollars is paid for in a variety of cost offsetting ways. Anyway, the republicans are, on the other hand, pretty enthusiastic about war in any form and the one in Afghanistan in particular. That may be because both the Afghan Debacle (is it too soon for that name?) and the Iraq Debacle have been conducted off budget. Apparently that allows the trillion or so that those two Debacles have cost to date to flow straight through to the aggregate national debt without stopping off as a part of any annual deficit. Adding to the deficit would have been pretty annoying to the American people, so our leaders of all stripes and colors just let it flow through to the debt. Since that debt is something about which we rarely speak – probably due to its enormity – the whole war financing method is pretty good politics.

The republican's enthusiasm for the Afghan Debacle, should, I would hope, but I may be assuming where I should be verifying – those guys are pretty slippery – include the fact that they accept the hundred billion a year price tag. Again, even if they accept it they are really off the hook because, unlike health care which needs to be accounted and paid for, the twin Debacles are just paid for out of some magic purse full of foo foo dust.

So what I am about to say is already, even before I say it, trumped. But I have to say it anyway.

If I take thirty years and multiply it by a hundred billion - not counting the post war costs of veterans' medical benefits (we learned from the Walter Reed Debacle – there is a mounting number of Debacles here – that we really don't intend to offer much in the way of veteran's benefits anyway), inflation and related nuisances - I get three trillion dollars. And that is three trillion that, although it is off budget it does go to the aggregate national debt. Last time I looked that aggregate national debt was about eleven trillion. Good thing that interest rates are so low.

I guess three trillion not budgeted and not paid for compared to one trillion which is to be budgeted and paid for is a much better deal.

Of course the crowd to whom that appears to be a good deal mostly believes that the earth is six thousand years old.